Okay, okay, okay. I had a little rally Friday betting on the 2024 men's college basketball conference tournaments following a 0-3 start Thursday. I hit two of three picks Friday after losing three coin-flip games. Granted, one of my two covers was by a half-point and I needed a lock-down free-throw shooter to miss at the end of regulation to get home. That said, I'll take what I can get at this point since most of these March Madness 2024 cashes or losses are going to nail-biters.
The odds below are the best available at the time of writing.
The Cornhuskers will be a popular pick to pull off an upset here or at least to cover the spread. They beat the Indiana Hoosiers 93-66 Friday in the Big Ten quarterfinals while the Fighting Illini rallied to squeak past the Ohio State Buckeyes. Plus, Nebraska lost to Illinois 87-84 on the road in overtime last month and the Cornhuskers covered as +10 underdogs.
However, the Fighting Illini have a much better shot profile. Per Bart Torvik, they have a better dunk rate per 2-point field goal attempt on both ends of the floor. Illinois forces opponents into more inefficient, long-mid-range jumpers and shoots fewer than Nebraska.
The Fighting Illini have a below-average defensive 3-point rate yet they rank sixth in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed out of 363 D-1 schools, per Ken Pom. Preventing teams from shooting threes is more predictive than 3-point conversion rates. On that note, the Cornhuskers are 310th in defensive 3PAr.
Illinois should win the free-throw battle and beat Nebraska on the glass. Per Ken Pom, the Cornhuskers are 218th in offensive rebounding rate, 217th defensively, and 193rd in offensive FT/FGA rate. Whereas the Fighting Illini are 18th in offensive rebounding, 66th in offensive FT/FGA rate, and 38th defensively.
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Initially, I thought there was no chance the Golden Eagles could keep this game close without All-Big East First Team PG Tyler Kolek. Then I got a text from my best friend, who's a UConn alum, and he said: "I would bet Marquette today because they have enough firepower to stay within single digits."
Then I looked at what college basketball nerds Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam thought of this game. I was surprised to see they thought the Golden Eagles +4.5 to +5 underdogs vs. the Huskies. First of all, Marquette's head coach, Shaka Smart, is a good tournament-basketball coach.
Second, the Golden Eagles lost 74-67 at home to the Huskies without Kolek and got crushed 81-53 in Connecticut with him. But, Kolek had one of his worst games of the season vs. UConn. He scored just 7 points on 2-of-11 shooting with more turnovers than assists (4-3).
Finally, everyone is going to bet the Huskies regardless of the spread because of Kolek's absence and UConn's 2-0 record vs. Marquette in the regular season. Fading public favorites is usually a good starting point for betting in March Madness.
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I like the idea of fading the Ducks after they just upset the 1-seed Arizona Wildcats 67-59 in the Pac-12 semifinals. Arizona gave that game away more than Oregon won it. The Buffaloes were 2-0 vs. the Ducks during the regular season, winning their first meeting 86-70 and the second 79-75.
Furthermore, the sharper offshore sportsbooks make Colorado's spread pricier. Typically, the legal U.S. operations copy those offshore oddsmakers such as Bookmaker, Betcris, and Pinnacle Sportsbook. The college basketball nerds — Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam — agree that the Buffaloes should be -4 to -6 favorites.
Finally, Colorado should win three of the "four factors". Per Ken Pom, the Buffaloes rank third in the Pac-12 for offensive rebounding, second in FT/FGA rate, and first in both 3-point and free-throw shooting. Oregon is eighth in the conference in both defensive rebounding and 3-point percentage and ninth in FT/FGA rate.
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