Honestly, I didn't expect to be making MLB picks for a second straight day. After successfully betting MLB from 2017-2021, the past two seasons have sucked. My Futures and projections of teams were profitable. The daily MLB handicapping grind is not so good. Yet, I hit both of my MLB bets for Memorial Day and figured, "Why not run it back"?
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
While I agree that Rodriguez is a better starter, I disagree about how much. The "break-even" probability for +140 odds is 41.2% and Bello wins this game at least 45% of the time. Also, Baltimore’s lineup is slightly better but neck-and-neck vs. right-handed pitching. Boston’s bullpen is second in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA.
However, since 2023, the Red Sox are 8-2 in Bello starts as a road underdog. They have a +3.0 run differential and a +77.3% return on investment (ROI) in those games. Finally, Boston is 4-1 in AL East road games with Bello on the mound over the last two seasons. The Red Sox have a +35.7% ROI and +2.0 run margin in those games.
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Despite Ragans being a top-five pitcher in the AL through the first two months of the season, KC opened as -109 moneyline favorites. Bettors see Ragans against a relative no-name starter at good odds and think they are getting a deal. That said, the Twins are more productive vs. lefties than the Royals against righties and Minnesota has an edge in relief pitching.
Per FanGraphs, the Twins have a 112 wRC+ (eighth in MLB), .325 wOBA (ninth), .164 ISO (sixth), and 32.4% hard-hit rate (ninth) vs. left-handed pitching. Kansas City's lineup has a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (17th) and .313 wOBA (10th). Plus, Minnesota's bullpen is eighth in xFIP and KC's is last. Ultimately, Richardson can get the game to his relievers and the Twins can steal it in the late innings.
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