I like baseball and all, but I'm only betting the MLB out of boredom Wednesday. The NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals, and Memorial Tournament haven't started yet, and I need something to watch while I'm handicapping this weekend's Belmont Stakes. More importantly, I won 10 straight in the MLB last week and I have to rebuild my bankroll after a disastrous NBA season.
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
The Rays won the series opener 9-5 Tuesday. This is the last of a mini-two-game series and these teams meet again in Tampa at the end of July.
If "trap lines" exist, this has to be one. Sure, both teams are below-.500, but the Rays play in baseball's toughest division and the Marlins are last in the NL East. Tampa Bay is 9-4 in interleague games and Miami is 5-11. Plus, the Rays are 8-1 vs. the Marlins since 2022.
Furthermore, Tampa is 10-5 vs. lefties this year and hits them better than Miami hits righties. Per FanGraphs, the Rays have a better wRC+ (106-91) and wOBA (.310-.296) against left-handed pitching compared to the Marlins vs. right-handed pitching.
Now, Tampa's bullpen has sucked this year. Yet, I expect that to turn around because the Rays consistently have some of the best relief pitching in MLB. Their two best relievers, RHPs Shawn Armstrong and Jason Adam, have a sub-2.00 ERA and are available to pitch Wednesday. Whereas Miami's two best bullpen arms pitched Tuesday.
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The Angels won the first two games of this set with a +3 run differential: 2-1 Monday and 4-2 Tuesday.
Cease is 5-0 as a road favorite this year with a +3.4 scoring margin and +75.3% return on investment. The Padres were -180 favorites vs. Colorado in one of those games and the Rockies are only 1.5 games worse than LAA. FanGraphs has Cease 13th in its starting-pitcher power rankings, and he is tied for seventh in WAR among qualified starters.
Finally, according to FanGraphs, the Padres are ninth in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA over the last two weeks. While the Angels are dead last in both with a bullet. While Los Angeles's .252 wOBA is 19 points lower than the next closest team and the Chicago White Sox's 74 wRC+ is 14 better than the Angels over that span.
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