From a betting perspective, I've been "fouling off pitches" in the MLB, so to speak. This week, I'm 2-3-1 and -1.40 units (u). One loss was in extra innings and another was by one run. Nevertheless, you aren't here for excuses, you're here for winners. As a reminder, all my articles end with "I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season".
That's the case for Father's Day. I snuck in an UNDER 7 wager on the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles game and didn't have the time to write up a handicap. The TLDR version of this Under is that both are starting their aces and the situational trends point to a low-scoring affair. However, I have two more bets you can sweat while doing Father's Day stuff Sunday.
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
This is the rubber match of the interleague set. The Dodgers won the series opener 4-3 Friday then the Royals evened the set with a 7-2 victory Saturday.
Six of LAD's last 10 games have combined for 9+ runs and the same goes for KC. Singer is 3-2 Over/Under (O/U) on the road this year and Glasnow is 5-2 O/U at home. Los Angeles's bullpen is solid but is heavily fatigued. Kansas City's bullpen is below average but well-rested.
Furthermore, Singer's 3.30 ERA is misleading and due for regression. According to Statcast, the 2018 first-round draft pick grades out in the bottom-third of MLB starters or worse in xERA, xBA, exit velocity, chase rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Also, the Dodgers are raking this month and tough vs. right-handed pitching.
In June, the Dodgers are third in both wRC+ and WAR, first in BB/K rate, and fourth in wOBA, per FanGraphs. They rank third in all of those metrics against righties as well. Finally, LAD has the best one-through-three hitters in MLB: SS Mookie Betts, DH Shohei Ohtani, and 1B Freddie Freeman.
_____________________________
Baseball's fiercest rivalry heads into a rubber match of its first three-game set this year. New York won the first, 8-1, Friday, and Boston rebounded with an 8-4 win Saturday.
In this era of power-pitching and guys hitting triple digits on the radar gun, Stroman is a change of pace. Stroman's fastball averages 90.3 mph and is the least-used pitch in his arsenal. Instead, he is a "ground-ball" pitcher and relies on breaking stuff, such as a sinker, cutter, slurve, and splitter.
For whatever reason, Stroman has pitched better on the road this season: 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA. The opposite is true for Crawford. At home, he is 1-5 with a 4.11 ERA. More importantly, NYY's bullpen is third in ERA and has its best arms available, while Boston used its four-best relievers Saturday.
Lastly, the Yankees hit right-handed pitching harder. They are 24 games above-.500 against righty starters this year. New York leads MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and BB/K rate and ranks fourth in hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.
from The Latest & Most Breaking News With OutKick https://ift.tt/XjLYnMs