Neither starter in the three-game series opener between the New York Yankees (35-20) and Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) pitched in the 2024 World Series, which the Dodgers won 4-1. NYY signed starting LHP Max Fried (7-0, 1.29 ERA) this offseason, and LAD starting RHP Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68 ERA) missed last year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball. They've won 16 of their last 20 games, including five straight, and lead the AL East by 6.5 games. The Dodgers are still atop the NL West by 2.0 games, but they are just 5-5 over their last 10.
Fried has been worth his eight-year, $218 million contract thus far. He is the second betting favorite at FanDuel to win the 2025 AL Cy Young (+600) and has plenty of experience vs. the Dodgers. Fried is 2-2 against LAD in four playoff starts and won the 2021 World Series with the Atlanta Braves, beating the Dodgers for the pennant.
The two-time All-Star has a 26.6% K-rate and .221/.299/.388 expected slash line in 203 plate appearances (PA) against active Dodgers, according to Statcast. Dodgers SS Mookie Betts is batting .067 in 32 career PA vs. Fried, 1B Freddie Freeman is .154 with a 46.7% K-rate in 15 PA, and C Will Smith is .120 in 26 PA.
Those are Los Angeles's two-through-four hitters. Dodgers slugger, and reigning NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani is .600 with 1 home run in 6 PA. However, at least it's a lefty vs. lefty matchup, and Fried can pitch around Ohtani, who leads off because he's been good against Shohei's lineup protection.
Lastly, New York has a slight edge in relief pitching and the best lineup in MLB. Per FanGraphs, the Yankees are fourth in bullpen Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors out of the pitcher's control, and the Dodgers are 13th in bullpen FIP. NYY leads the majors in WAR and slugging percentage.
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