The SEC might be the country's deepest conference, but it doesn't hurt that the league has retained several scheduling advantages over its competitors.
First, there's geography. SEC schools, even with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, are generally located within the same geographic region. Many are within driving distance of each other, and the longest "road trip" is just one time zone. Contrast that with the current ACC, where Cal and Stanford play schools in Miami, Tallahassee, Boston, and South Carolina. Or the Big Ten, where Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA play in New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Some SEC schools have taken that pre-existing advantage and expanded on it. Florida, for example, has played one road non-conference game in the last 34 years. It lost.
Then there's the now-tradition among top SEC programs to schedule an effective bye week in November. Alabama in 2023 played Chattanooga ahead of its rivalry game against Auburn. Then Mercer ahead of a road trip to Oklahoma. Which it lost anyway. Still, the overmatched lower-end opponent allows teams to rest key players or hopefully avoid late-season injuries.
But the biggest advantage? The fact that the SEC plays just eight conference games. And new analysis has demonstrated just how much of an advantage it provides compared to adding a ninth game. Spoiler alert: it's a big one.
ESPN's Bill Connelly, the creator of the SP+ model, made a hypothetical nine-game SEC schedule based on the assumption of three annual rivalry games that are set in stone each year. The remaining six games would rotate between the other conference members.
Connelly, most importantly, simulated what that schedule would mean for end-of-season win-loss records. Turns out, it'd mean a whole heck of a lot.
While elite teams like Georgia wouldn't see their win projections change much, the middle-tier would be significantly hurt. Per Connelly's simulations, for example, Florida currently has a 43.7% chance of finishing at least 9-3 in 2025. Add an extra conference game? That goes down all the way to 19.6%. Several others lose at least 10% probability of finishing with nine wins, and a team like Vanderbilt goes from a longshot to virtually impossible.
Under the current eight-game schedule, Connelly projects that 6.2 SEC teams on average will finish 9-3 or better. Add the ninth conference game, and it goes down to 4.7. It could also cost the conference up to two bowl-eligible teams per year. And in a 16-team, 5+11 format, at least one, if not two, spots in the College Football Playoff.
See why the conference has steadfastly resisted calls to expand to nine games?
To be fair to the SEC, where it gets its strength is having the most mid-tier programs of any conference. In most years, there are fewer legitimately bad teams compared to even the Big Ten. That makes adding that ninth game extremely important, since it removes an easy non-conference home game and replaces it with, say, the 40th best team in the country. Suddenly, a game with 99% win expectancy becomes one with 60% win expectancy. That's a big difference.
The 2024 Ole Miss football team might be the best example of how this would play out.
The Rebels' non-conference schedule last season was as follows:
The combined margin in non-conference games was 220-22. Replace one of Furman or Georgia Southern with Missouri or South Carolina, and that 9-3 regular season gets a lot tougher.
The SEC might be the toughest conference, thanks to its mid-tier depth. But it also gives itself a number of big advantages, and as Connelly's simulation shows, the biggest might be playing eight conference games. And that's why that's almost certainly never going to change, without significant incentives to accept a tougher schedule.
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