This conference finals' 2-0 makes more sense than the one out East. The Minnesota Timberwolves are staring down the barrel of an 0-3 deficit when they host the first-place, 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 3 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals. No NBA team has won a playoff series after losing the first three games, so the T-Wolves know their season is on the line Saturday.
Oklahoma City beat the brakes off Minnesota 114-88 in Game 1, going Under the 219.5 total, and 118-103 in Game 2, going Over the 218 total. After being named 2024-25 NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off in Game 2 Thursday. SGA had game-highs in points (38) and assists (8) while shooting 57.1% and 13-of-15 from the foul line.
Since 2020, the totals for Game 3s when the home underdog is down 0-2 are 6-9 Over/Under (O/U), including 0-3 O/U this postseason. I'll factor in a trend if I can understand it, and that's the case with this trend. With their backs against the wall, the inferior team (home 'dog) will fight like hell to stave off elimination, which usually means more effort on defense.
Also, this has been a slow-paced series: 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes through the first two games. For context, that would've ranked 28th during the NBA regular season, and the Timberwolves had a 97.3 pace this season, ranking 24th. OKC has shot worse from everywhere on the floor and scores 16.4 fewer points per game (123.2-106.8) on the road in these playoffs.
The T-Wolves were sixth in defensive rating this season and the Thunder led the NBA. Lastly, even though SGA has been dubbed a "foul merchant," Oklahoma City was only 24th in offensive FT/FGA rate during the regular season and Minnesota was ninth defensively. Hence, it's likely there won't be a lot of free throws Saturday.
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