Julius Caesar once said: "If you want to take the island, burn the boats." Well, the New York Knicks (0-2) have two burn-the-boats games on the road vs. the Indiana Pacers (2-0) in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. The series is probably over if New York loses Games 3 or 4 in Indiana, and it's almost certainly over if the Knicks lose Sunday to go down 0-3.
Pacers PF Pascal Siakam tore New York apart Friday, scoring a game-high 39 points on 15-of-23 shooting. Indy hunted Knicks All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns throughout Game 2, making him unplayable. For instance, the Knicks were out-scored by 20 points when Towns was on the floor Friday.
NYK's Game 1 loss felt like a lucky win for Indiana. But, after winning Game 2, the Pacers look like the better team. They return home Sunday, where they were 29-12 during the regular season. As a result, Indiana is a -525 favorite to advance to the 2025 NBA Finals at DraftKings entering Game 3, and the Knicks are +400.
The market is giving Indiana too big of a boost for home-court advantage Sunday. New York is 5-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road in these playoffs. NYK is 5-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog of +3 or lower this season, including a series-clinching win as +1.5 'dogs at the Detroit Pistons in Game 6 of the first round. Hence, Knicks-Pacers Game 3 should be a "pick 'em".
New York's best players are showing up for the conference finals. Jalen Brunson is averaging a series-best 39.5 points on 53.8% shooting and Towns is scoring 27.5 points on 54.8% shooting. Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau just needs to do a better job staggering backup C Mitchell Robinson's and KAT's minutes.
Robinson dominates Indy on the glass and has the highest offensive rebounding rate in this series. This should continue in Game 3 since the Pacers were 20th in defensive rebounding rate during the regular season. Plus, they don't have anyone who can stop Towns. If he doesn't commit stupid fouls, KAT will get buckets against Indiana.
Finally, Scott Foster, aka "The Extender," is the officiating crew chief for Game 3. This is the NBA's way of trying to keep the Knicks in the playoffs because its TV ratings will plummet whenever they are eliminated. Okay, that's kind of a joke but, regardless, something tells me New York will make this a series.
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